$63,158.25
nupl-lth, nupl-sth, lth-sopr, sth-sopr, lth-mvrv, sth-mvrv, aviv (partial — all-time context only), open-interest-futures, bitcoin-dominance, lth-net-position-change, sth-net-position-change, btc-rsi, btc-macd. Additionally, the 7-day historical series for most metrics contains only a single data point (June 7, 2026), meaning intra-week trend direction cannot be computed from the series alone — all change figures show +0.0%. Confidence is lowered accordingly. Overall Confidence: MEDIUM-LOW.
$63,158.25 in a confirmed Fear zone, with extreme sentiment compression (Fear & Greed at 8/100 — Extreme Fear), on-chain metrics uniformly in the lower historical percentiles, and institutional ETF flows turning net negative — collectively pointing to a market under significant short-term selling pressure following a notable price decline over the past 7 days.
8/100 (Extreme Fear threshold: 0–24), the lowest reading in recent memory, signaling panic-driven selling and a near-total absence of speculative demand in the short term.0.1598 sits in the Fear zone (0–0.25) and at only the 19th historical percentile, indicating the average holder is barely in profit — a fragile condition that historically precedes either a capitulation flush or a recovery base.-105.28 BTC, with cumulative holdings at 631,160 BTC — institutional distribution pressure is a key driver of the recent price weakness.-517.55 BTC (net outflow from exchanges), suggesting some cohort of holders is still moving coins to self-custody rather than selling — a mildly constructive signal that limits pure capitulation risk.0.0005 (2nd historical percentile) and VDD Multiple at 0.3564 (15th percentile) indicate that long-term holders are not spending coins at elevated rates, preserving HODLer conviction even as price falls — a classic accumulation-zone signature.Based on the available on-chain data as of June 7–8, 2026, Bitcoin appears to be in a mid-cycle correction / re-accumulation phase, approximately 2 years post the April 2024 halving. The 4-year halving cycle context is critical here:
1.1903 — 19th PercentileMarket Value is only 19% above Realized Value ($53,173). Historical bull market peaks see MVRV at 3.5–4.0+. The current reading is well below the all-time average of 2.2639, placing us firmly in the undervalued / accumulation zone. During the 2020–21 bull run, MVRV exceeded 3.0; during the 2022–23 bear, it fell below 1.0. At 1.19, we are in the lower-mid range — not yet bear-market capitulation, but far from euphoria.
0.1598 — Fear Zone (19th Percentile)NUPL in the Fear zone (0–0.25). Historical thresholds: <0 = Capitulation, 0–0.25 = Fear, 0.25–0.5 = Hope, 0.5–0.75 = Optimism, >0.75 = Euphoria/Top. At 0.1598, the market is in Fear — consistent with mid-cycle pullbacks seen in 2019 and mid-2021. The all-time average NUPL is 0.3669 (Hope zone), confirming we are below the long-run mean.
1,427.51The RHODL ratio compares 1-week to 1–2 year coin age bands. The 1-month average is 1,208.35. Elevated RHODL readings (>50,000) historically signal cycle tops. At 1,427, this metric is very low — indicating that older coins dominate realized value, a hallmark of early-to-mid cycle accumulation rather than a top.
0.8104 — 25th PercentileAVIV (all-time context only, current series unavailable) at 0.8104 sits at the 25th historical percentile, below the all-time average of 1.1158. Values below 1.0 suggest the market is trading at a discount relative to active investor cost basis — a historically favorable risk/reward entry zone. Bull market peaks typically see AVIV above 2.0–3.0.
All values as of June 7–8, 2026. 7-day series contains single data point — trend direction based on snapshot + all-time percentile context.
| Metric | Current Value | Historical Context & Thresholds | All-Time Percentile | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV ↗ | 1.1903 |
Below 1.0 = capitulation/buy zone; 1.0–2.0 = undervalued; 2.0–3.5 = fair-to-overvalued; >3.5 = euphoria/top. All-time avg: 2.26. Current is 19% above realized price ($53,173). | 19th |
Bullish |
| NUPL ↗ | 0.1598 |
Fear zone (0–0.25). <0 = Capitulation; 0–0.25 = Fear; 0.25–0.5 = Hope; 0.5–0.75 = Optimism; >0.75 = Euphoria. All-time avg: 0.3669. Currently below average — fragile but not capitulation. | 19th |
Neutral |
| SOPR ↗ | 1.0028 |
SOPR >1.0 = coins sold at profit; <1.0 = sold at loss. At 1.0028, barely above breakeven — sellers are realizing minimal profit, consistent with capitulation-adjacent behavior. All-time avg: 1.0116. 49th percentile. | 49th |
Neutral |
| Reserve Risk ↗ | 0.0005 |
Low Reserve Risk = HODLers not selling despite opportunity cost. <0.002 = historically favorable buy zone; >0.02 = top risk. All-time avg: 0.0038. At 2nd percentile — extreme HODLer conviction. | 2nd |
Bullish |
| VDD Multiple | 0.3564 |
VDD <1 = low coin-day destruction relative to issuance value; >2 = distribution/top risk. All-time avg: 1.0678. At 15th percentile — long-term holders are NOT moving coins at elevated rates. Accumulation signal. | 15th |
Bullish |
| Fear & Greed ↗ | 8 / 100 |
Extreme Fear (0–24). Scale: 0–24 Extreme Fear, 25–49 Fear, 50 Neutral, 51–74 Greed, 75–100 Extreme Greed. Score of 8 is near the absolute floor — historically a contrarian buy signal but also confirms severe near-term panic. | ~Bottom Decile |
Bearish |
| CDD-90dma ↗ | 7.91M |
Coin Days Destroyed 90-day moving average. Elevated readings signal long-dormant coins moving (distribution). Low readings = HODLing behavior. At 7.91M, this is a relatively subdued level — long-term holders are NOT aggressively spending/distributing. Consistent with Reserve Risk and VDD signals. | Percentile N/A | Bullish |
| NRPL (USD) ↗ | $288,256 |
Net Realized Profit/Loss. Positive = net profit realized by sellers. At $288K (June 8), this is a very small positive figure — sellers are barely realizing gains. LTH-NRPL: $42.37M (long-term holders still net profitable). STH-NRPL: $54.62M (short-term holders also net profitable but thin margins). No large-scale panic selling evident in realized flows. | N/A | Neutral |
0.2576 (26th percentile, range: -0.687 to 32.96) further confirms the market is in a historically low-valuation zone — far from the overheated readings (>7) seen at prior cycle tops.
The ETF flow data ↗ (latest available: June 4, 2026) shows a net outflow of -105.28 BTC on the most recent trading day. This is a key contributor to the recent price weakness. Institutional investors — who have been the primary marginal buyers since the January 2024 ETF approvals — appear to be in a net distribution phase.
Cumulative holdings stand at 631,160.19 BTC. While this represents a substantial institutional position, the shift from net inflows to net outflows is a meaningful sentiment signal. Historically, sustained ETF outflow periods have coincided with price corrections of 10–20%.
8, retail sentiment is also deeply negative, removing the bid that would normally absorb institutional selling.
Note: Only a single ETF flow data point (June 4) is available in the 7-day window. A full week of daily ETF flow data would provide stronger trend confirmation. The gap between June 4 and June 8 (weekend + Monday) means the most recent flows are not yet captured.
The network hashrate ↗ at 812.72 EH/s (exahashes per second) represents a historically high level of mining activity. A robust hashrate signals strong miner commitment and network security — miners are NOT capitulating despite the price decline. This is a Bullish structural signal.
The Puell Multiple ↗ at 0.5378 measures daily miner revenue relative to its 365-day moving average. Key thresholds: <0.5 = miner stress/buy zone; >4.0 = miner euphoria/sell zone. At 0.5378, miners are earning slightly above the stress threshold but well below historical averages. This indicates:
726,337.87 BTC. Current miner reserve levels cannot be confirmed — this is a significant gap in the analysis. Do NOT draw conclusions about current miner selling behavior from this figure.
Mining Health Summary: The combination of high hashrate (Bullish for security) and low Puell Multiple (Bullish for cycle positioning) suggests the mining sector is under revenue pressure but not capitulating. Miner selling is unlikely to be a primary driver of the current price drop, though stale reserve data prevents full confirmation.
nupl-lth, nupl-sth, lth-sopr, sth-sopr, lth-mvrv, sth-mvrv, lth-net-position-change, sth-net-position-change are all unavailable. LTH/STH segmentation analysis is limited to NRPL splits and aggregate metrics.
NUPL at 0.1598 places the market in the Fear zone (0–0.25). This means the aggregate unrealized profit across all holders is only ~16% of market cap — a thin margin. Historically, the Fear zone has been associated with:
| Cohort | NRPL (USD) | Interpretation | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Holders (Aggregate) | $288,256 |
Barely positive — near-zero net realized profit. Sellers are not extracting meaningful gains. No large-scale profit-taking event in progress. | Neutral |
| LTH-NRPL ↗ | $42.37M |
Long-term holders are realizing net profits of $42.37M. This is a moderate level — LTHs are selling some coins at profit but not in a panic. Their cost basis is well below current price |