nupl-lth, nupl-sth, lth-sopr, sth-sopr, lth-mvrv, sth-mvrv, aviv (partial), cdd-90dma, open-interest-futures, bitcoin-dominance, lth-net-position-change, sth-net-position-change, btc-rsi, btc-macd. Overall report confidence is MEDIUM-LOW due to these gaps.
| ⚠️ 30-Day Trend Note: The historical series for all metrics returns only a single data point (2026-06-04/05), meaning no intra-period trend can be computed. All "30-day change" figures show +0.0%. Trend narratives are based on cross-metric inference from the single snapshot.
+19.5% premium to its on-chain cost basis, yet the
MVRV ↗
of 1.1913 sits at only the 19th historical percentile — signaling the market is far from overheated.
12 — deep Extreme Fear territory (0–24 range). Historically, sustained Extreme Fear at prices above the realized price has preceded significant recoveries. This is the single most actionable contrarian signal in today's data.
-6,174.44 BTC (net outflow), while cumulative holdings stand at
631,265 BTC. Institutional sentiment is currently risk-off, consistent with the Extreme Fear reading.
-$1.08B and NRPL-LTH is -$365M — both cohorts are realizing net losses. SOPR at
0.9781 (5th historical percentile) confirms coins are being sold at a loss, a classic capitulation signal.
980.64 EH/s and a Puell Multiple of 0.6657 (historically a miner-stress / buy zone) indicate the network is healthy even as sentiment collapses.
Bitcoin's last halving occurred in April 2024. As of June 2026, we are approximately 26 months post-halving — historically, this window (months 18–30 post-halving) has been associated with the mid-to-late bull market acceleration phase in prior cycles (2016–2017 and 2020–2021). However, current on-chain metrics paint a picture that is significantly more subdued than those historical analogs at the same cycle point.
| Metric | Current | Cycle Position Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV ↗ | 1.1913 |
Early/Mid Cycle — 19th percentile; bull tops historically at 3.5–4.0+ |
| NUPL ↗ | 0.1606 |
Fear Zone — 19th percentile; 0–0.25 = Fear; tops at >0.75 (Euphoria) |
| RHODL Ratio | 1,470.83 |
Neutral — 1M RHODL at 1,204.67; not yet at cycle-top extremes (>50,000) |
| MVRV Z-Score | 0.3659 |
Undervalued — 28th percentile; red zone (sell) historically >7 |
| AVIV (partial) | 0.8111 |
Neutral — 25th percentile; all-time avg 1.12; tops near 3.0 |
12 (Extreme Fear) at this cycle stage is anomalous — in 2021, the index was in Greed/Extreme Greed at equivalent post-halving timeframes. This divergence is a key watch point.
| Metric | Value | Historical Context | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV ↗ | 1.1913 |
19th percentile all-time. All-time avg: 2.26. Tops: 3.5–4.0+. Below 1.0 = capitulation zone. Current: modest premium to realized price ($53,272). | Bullish |
| NUPL ↗ | 0.1606 |
19th percentile. Fear zone (0–0.25). All-time avg: 0.37. Euphoria >0.75; Capitulation <0. Historically, Fear zone has been a strong accumulation window. | Bullish |
| SOPR ↗ | 0.9781 |
5th percentile all-time — extremely low. All-time avg: 1.0116. Below 1.0 = coins sold at a loss. Sustained sub-1 SOPR = capitulation/seller exhaustion signal. | Bullish (contrarian) |
| Reserve Risk ↗ | 0.0005 |
2nd percentile — near all-time low. All-time avg: 0.0038. <0.002 = extreme undervaluation / strong HODLer conviction. >0.02 = top risk zone. | Bullish |
| VDD Multiple | 0.3501 |
15th percentile. All-time avg: 1.07. <0.5 = low miner revenue stress / undervalued. >3.0 = overheated. Currently well below average. | Bullish |
| Fear & Greed ↗ | 12 — Extreme Fear |
Score of 12 = deep Extreme Fear (0–24 range). Historically, readings below 15 at prices above realized cost basis have marked major accumulation zones. Extreme Fear often precedes sharp reversals. | Bullish (contrarian) |
| CDD-90dma ↗ | Unavailable |
No data returned. Cannot assess long-dormant coin movement. This gap reduces confidence in holder conviction analysis. | N/A |
| NRPL (USD) ↗ | +$2.59M (aggregate) |
Aggregate NRPL is marginally positive (+$2.59M), but LTH-NRPL = -$365M and STH-NRPL = -$1.08B. Both cohorts are net realizing losses — a capitulation signal. Positive aggregate may reflect a small number of profitable transactions masking broad losses. |
Neutral / Bullish (contrarian) |
12 is the most extreme sentiment reading in this dataset. Cross-referencing with SOPR at the 5th percentile and Reserve Risk at the 2nd percentile creates a rare confluence of capitulation signals. In prior cycles, this combination has historically represented a high-conviction accumulation window — though timing the exact bottom remains uncertain.
The most recent available ETF daily flow (2026-06-03) shows a significant net outflow of -6,174.44 BTC. This is a material single-day redemption event. Cumulative ETF holdings at 631,265 BTC remain substantial, representing a significant institutional position built since the January 2024 spot ETF approvals.
Trend Assessment (caveat — single data point in 30-day series): With only one data point available in the 30-day series, we cannot confirm whether this outflow is an isolated event or part of a sustained redemption trend. However, the alignment of a large ETF outflow with Fear & Greed at 12 and NRPL-STH at -$1.08B suggests institutional participants are reducing exposure in response to the same fear environment affecting retail sentiment.
$53,272.
Hashrate at 980.64 EH/s indicates the Bitcoin network is operating at or near all-time high computational power. This reflects strong miner commitment and network security, even amid the current price weakness. A robust hashrate at low MVRV levels historically signals that miners believe in long-term value and are not capitulating.
Puell Multiple ↗ at 0.6657 — this metric measures daily miner revenue relative to its 365-day moving average. Values below 0.5 have historically marked major cycle bottoms (green zone); values between 0.5–1.0 represent the "accumulation/recovery" zone. At 0.6657, miners are earning below-average revenue relative to the past year, which typically reduces sell pressure (miners hold rather than sell at depressed prices). This is a Bullish signal for price.
726,337.87 BTC cannot be used for current selling pressure assessment. We cannot determine whether miners have been accumulating or distributing since October 2025. This is a significant data gap. Confidence in miner selling pressure analysis: LOW.
nupl-lth, nupl-sth, lth-sopr, sth-sopr, lth-mvrv, sth-mvrv, cdd-90dma, lth-net-position-change, sth-net-position-change. Analysis below relies on available proxies (NRPL-LTH, NRPL-STH, aggregate SOPR, NUPL). Confidence in holder behavior section: MEDIUM-LOW.
| NRPL-LTH (2026-06-04) | -$365.00M |
| LTH-MVRV | Unavailable |
| LTH-SOPR | Unavailable |
| LTH Net Position Change | Unavailable |
| NRPL-STH (2026-06-04) | -$1.08B |
| STH-MVRV | Unavailable |
| STH-SOPR | Unavailable |
| STH Net Position Change | Unavailable |