Bitcoin On-Chain Analyst Report — 2026-06-02

• Price vs. Realized Price: BTC trades at $71,328.73 vs. a Realized Price of $53,548.77, placing MVRV at 1.33 — the average holder is in profit (~33% unrealized gain), but the market is far from euphoric cycle tops (MVRV historically peaks at 3.5–4.0+).
• Miner Selling Pressure is Subdued (Key Focus): The Puell Multiple at 0.72 (16th all-time percentile via VDD context) signals miner revenue is well below historical averages, reducing incentive to sell aggressively. Hashrate at 944.66 EH/s remains robust, but miner balances data (last updated 2025-10-27) is stale at 726,337 BTC — this gap limits confidence in current miner reserve conclusions.
• Sentiment is Extreme Fear: Fear & Greed at 23 (Extreme Fear zone: 0–24) historically represents a contrarian accumulation signal, not a distribution environment — consistent with the low miner selling thesis.
• Holders in Net Loss: SOPR at 0.9881 (10th all-time percentile) means coins being spent are realizing losses on average. NRPL at -$1.34M (net realized loss), with LTH-NRPL at -$192.97M and STH-NRPL at -$584.63M — both cohorts are booking losses, a capitulation-adjacent signal.
• ETF Outflows & Exchange Inflows Add Near-Term Caution: ETF net flow at -1,504.31 BTC (as of 2026-05-29) and exchange net inflow of +4,151.47 BTC suggest short-term distribution pressure from institutional and on-chain participants, partially offsetting the bullish miner/sentiment backdrop.

Based on the halving cycle framework, Bitcoin's last halving occurred in April 2024. Historically, the 12–24 months post-halving represent the mid-to-late bull market accumulation and expansion phase. At June 2026, we are approximately 26 months post-halving — a period that in prior cycles (2016–2017, 2020–2021) saw price discovery and eventual blow-off tops. However, current on-chain metrics suggest the market is behaving more conservatively than prior cycles at this stage.

* CDD-90dma unavailable; VDD Multiple used as proxy. All percentiles from all-time historical context provided.

The most recent ETF flow ↗ reading (2026-05-29) shows a net outflow of -1,504.31 BTC, indicating institutional participants were net sellers on that day. Cumulative ETF holdings stand at 652,331.77 BTC — a substantial institutional position representing significant market influence.

Context: With 652,331 BTC in cumulative ETF holdings (~$46.5B at current prices), any sustained shift from accumulation to distribution by ETF holders would represent significant selling pressure. The Extreme Fear reading (23) may be partly driven by this institutional hesitancy. Conversely, if macro conditions improve, the large ETF base represents substantial dry powder for re-accumulation.

Miner Selling Pressure Linkage: ETF outflows occurring simultaneously with miner revenue compression (Puell Multiple at 0.72) creates a dual-pressure scenario on the sell side, though both are currently at low-to-moderate intensity levels.

NUPL Zone: Hope (0.2504)

NUPL at 0.2504 places the market at the lower boundary of the Hope zone (0.25–0.50). This means the aggregate unrealized profit across all holders is modest — roughly 25% of market cap is in unrealized profit. Historical context:

• Capitulation (<0): 2018 bear, 2022 bear — mass underwater positions.
• Fear (0–0.25): Early recovery phases — NUPL just crossed above this threshold.
• Hope (0.25–0.50): Current zone — holders are cautiously profitable, not yet confident enough to sell aggressively.
• Optimism (0.50–0.75): Mid-bull — profit-taking begins.
• Euphoria (>0.75): Cycle tops — maximum greed, peak distribution.

NRPL Analysis — Who Is Selling at a Loss?